UAE eCommerce GMV is projected to grow from $7 billion in 2024 to $11.5 billion by 2029, cementing the UAE’s status as a Middle East digital commerce powerhouse.
According to Mitch Bittermann, Senior VP at Dubai CommerCity, UAE eCommerce GMV is projected to hit $11.5 billion by 2029, a remarkable 50% increase from its estimated $7 billion in 2024.
This surge isn’t just about growth—it signals how quickly the UAE is emerging as a global online retail leader.
In this report, we’ll explore:
- Verified projections for UAE eCommerce GMV and the broader UAE eCommerce market size
- The forces driving this expansion: infrastructure, mobile-first consumers, cross-border platforms
- The role of social commerce and influencer partnerships in shaping future trends
Let’s begin with what the data is telling us.
UAE eCommerce GMV 2029: What the Data Tells Us
The GMV projection isn’t speculation—it’s grounded in data-backed strategy.
UAE eCommerce GMV is projected to grow from $7 billion in 2024 to $11.5 billion by 2029, according to Dubai CommerCity’s Mitch Bittermann.
That’s a 50% leap in just five years. Half of today’s commerce capacity will be added in under a decade.
UAE eCommerce GMV Projection (2024–2029)
This graph shows the forecasted increase in UAE eCommerce GMV from $7B in 2024 to $11.5B in 2029, based on projections shared at the WORLDEF Dubai Forum.
UAE eCommerce Market Size : Multiple Projections, One Direction
Ask any analyst about the UAE eCommerce market size, and you’ll find different numbers, but all pointing in the same direction.
Here’s a snapshot from trusted projections:
- $7B GMV in 2024, reaching $11.5B by 2029 – Dubai CommerCity
- $12.28B in 2025, rising to $21.18B by 2030 – Mordor Intelligence
- $125B in 2024, projected to hit $776.2B by 2033 – IMARC Group, including B2B and C2C
Key Insight:
UAE eCommerce GMV represents the transaction value of product sales, while market size can include platforms, services, and infrastructure. Regardless of the definition, the UAE digital commerce forecast is one of the most aggressive in MENA.
Key eCommerce Trends UAE 2029
UAE isn’t just keeping pace with global trends—it’s setting them.
a) Digital Infrastructure & Mobile Penetration
- 96% of the population is online, among the highest globally
- 61.7% of purchases in 2022 were made on mobile devices
Smartphone-first commerce is now the default in the Emirates, with platforms optimizing every pixel for mobile.
b) Omnichannel Retail Takes Over
Retailers are blending physical and digital touchpoints:
- Live shopping
- QR-based in-store displays
- AI-powered support chatbots
- AR-based try-on experiences
What we’re seeing is “total retail,” an evolved shopping experience that’s platform-agnostic.
c) Cross-Border Shopping Booms
58% of UAE online shoppers purchase from overseas vendors, driven by:
- Competitive pricing
- Global brand access
- Reliable cross-border logistics
Platforms benefiting:
- Amazon Global
- JD.com
- Noon
- AliExpress
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Social Commerce and Influencer Marketing in UAE
Let’s not overlook what’s happening on TikTok, Instagram, and beyond.
According to Business Wire, Social commerce in UAE is on track to grow from $3.21B in 2024 to $6.41Bby 2030, fueled by influencer-led campaigns and in-app checkout integrations.
Features that are fueling the shift:
- In-app checkouts
- Livestream product demos
- Personalized product discovery using AI
Consumer Behavior & UAE Online Shopping Trends 2029
The digital shopper in the UAE is no longer just browsing—they’re expecting speed, flexibility, and personalization.
As UAE online shopping trends 2029 take shape, consumer behavior continues to evolve rapidly. Free returns are now seen as standard, and platforms that fail to offer them risk losing loyalty. Transparency in pricing and same-day delivery are high on the list of expectations, especially in fashion, electronics, and luxury segments.
What Are UAE Consumers Looking For in 2029?
- Localized payment systems like buy-now-pay-later and digital wallets
- Reliable and trackable last-mile delivery
- Instant return handling and clear refund processes
- AI-generated product recommendations tailored to individual preferences
Everyday purchases have also shifted beyond the basics. Consumers now shop online for services like education, healthcare bookings, and even B2B solutions. This is a remarkable expansion from traditional e-commerce norms.
Quick Recap:
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- Top platforms: Amazon.ae, Noon, Namshi, Supermart
- Customer priorities:
- Top platforms: Amazon.ae, Noon, Namshi, Supermart
- Speedy delivery
- Transparent policies
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- Local currency payment options
- Local currency payment options
What’s surprising? Even grocery and automotive accessories now show solid digital traction—sectors that were once entirely offline.
Government Initiatives & Logistics Innovation
So, how does a nation hit a projected UAE eCommerce GMV of $11.5 billion by 2029? Infrastructure is the answer.
Dubai CommerCity is no longer just a business park—it’s a full-stack eCommerce ecosystem offering licensing, fulfillment, client networking, and customs digitization.
Key Infrastructure Moves:
- Talabot autonomous delivery robots by DIEZ & Talabat
- Noon’s 252,000 sq. m. fulfillment center in Abu Dhabi, targeting 6,000 jobs
- Blockchain-based customs integration for real-time order validation
These efforts align with the country’s UAE eCommerce GMV target and also support its ambition to become a global logistics and retail tech hub.
Future Outlook: UAE Digital Commerce Forecast
The UAE digital commerce forecast for 2030 envisions a world-class online economy—one that’s mobile-first, AI-optimized, and borderless.
What’s Next?
- Unified platforms blending social media, retail, and entertainment
- 1-click checkouts integrated directly into live-stream events
- Cybersecurity and data privacy are gaining focus
- Greater regulatory compliance and cross-border standardization
But this evolution doesn’t come easily. Companies must adapt to tougher competition, higher fulfillment costs, and customer demand for instant personalization—now seen as standard, not a bonus.
Still, the opportunity outweighs the challenge.
With strong growth across fashion, food, gifting, and electronics—and powered by bold government initiatives, the UAE is charting a roadmap for how digital economies should scale.
In short, the UAE eCommerce GMV story is just getting started. And if trends stay on course, the UAE won’t just be participating in the global eCommerce race—it will be helping shape its future.
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